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Bitcoin's volatility was on full display on Wednesday when its price fell from $6,300 to $6,100 before shooting up to $6,500 – all within an hour's time.

As of press time, the world's largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization was trading at $6,422, up 5 percent from the day's low of $6,117. The market did not waste time making its bullish move, scaling over 6 percent in less than 20 minutes to ultimately hit a high of $6,494, according to CoinDesk's Bitcoin Price Index (BPI).

Coincidentally, the move occurred within just minutes of a CBOE Bitcoin Futures expiration. Bitcoin futures expirations have been documented as having a turbulent effect on the price of the underlying cryptocurrency, so an increase in market volatility perhaps could have been foreseen.

Bitcoin's move today is more shocking than its usual volatility, as an important technical level of price support of $6,200 was breached, signaling bears were primed to drive prices lower. Evidently, that turned out not to be the case since it is clear demand still exists above the $6,000 mark.

CoinMarketCap data shows that the total market capitalization for the cryptocurrency market rose to roughly $201 billion during the market uptick, up roughly 4 percent and $8 billion from Wednesday's low.

At the time of writing, the 24-hour growth for other well-known cryptocurrencies is not quite as dramatic, although seven of the ten biggest cryptocurrencies by market capitalization have seen positive price developments. Cardano (ADA) is leading the pack, currently printing a six percent appreciation compared to Tuesday's figures.

Disclosure: The author holds BTC, AST, REQ, OMG, FUEL, 1st and AMP at the time of writing.

Bitcoin (BTC) is being squeezed into a tight trading range with neither bulls nor bears having the upper hand, and a decisive move either way will likely set the tone for the next trend going forward.

The $1,000 drop witnessed during a 24-hour period in the middle of the last week turned the tide in favor of the bears. As a result, the cryptocurrency was facing a risk of a drop to $6,000 over the weekend.

Despite expectations, the sell-off unexpectedly ran out of steam at a low of $6,119 on Saturday. More importantly, the cryptocurrency has printed higher price lows in the last four days, signaling bearish exhaustion.

Meanwhile, the bulls have not been exercising their buying power either, as indicated by the lower price highs around $6,400. So, it seems that the investor community is evenly split on the immediate prospects for the bitcoin market, leaving the cryptocurrency directionless.

That said, the direction of the range breakout will likely play a big role in determining the short-term price trend.

At press time, BTC is changing hands at $6,320 on Bitfinex, representing a 0.5 percent gain on a 24-hour basis.

Hourly chart

Looking at the hourly chart, BTC is being squeezed between the two lines representing lower highs and higher lows. In technical parlance, this narrowing price range is referred to as the "symmetrical triangle".

A downside break of the range would add credence to the bearish pennant breakdown seen in the line chart and the rising wedge breakdown seen in the candlestick chart, with prices potentially dropping below $6,000 (February low).

On the other hand, an upside break of the symmetrical triangle could allow a stronger corrective rally towards the 10-day moving average (MA), currently located at $6,660.

Daily chart

Over on the daily chart, the 5-day and 10-day MAs are trending south, indicating a bearish setup. The bears are also boosted by a rising wedge breakdown seen on Sep. 5.

While either side could gain the upper hand going forward, prices are more likely to see a downside break of the symmetrical triangle, the hourly chart suggests.

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  • The next violation of the narrowing price range on the hourly chart will likely set the tone for the next move in BTC.
  • A break below $6,260 (lower end of the symmetrical triangle) would bolster the already bearish technical setup and open up downside towards $6,000 (February low).
  • A move above $6,375 (upper edge of the triangle) would allow a corrective rally to the 10-day MA of $6,660, though the sustainability of gains is under question.

Disclosure: The author holds no cryptocurrency assets at the time of writing.

Bitcoin dropped below $7,000 a few minutes before press time, in a move that warrants caution as a possible bull trap.

The leading cryptocurrency closed yesterday (as per UTC) above the trendline sloping downwards from the March 5 high and May 5 high, seemingly confirming a long-term bearish-to-bullish trend change.

However, the follow-through has been disappointing. As of writing, BTC is changing hands at $6,965 on Bitfinex – down 3.5 percent on a 24-hour basis.

The negative price action reminds us of a failed long-term bullish breakout seen in July, although the long-term bull reversal is likely to be intact, according to technical studies.

Daily chart

As seen in the above chart, bitcoin's move above the falling channel hurdle (or falling trendline) on July 24 trapped the bulls on the wrong side of the market.

During that event, BTC had crossed the long-term falling trendline hurdle to print a high of $8,507 only to fall back below the psychological support of $6,000 by mid-August.

The bull breakout was short-lived, possibly due to overbought conditions indicated by a relative strength index (RSI) of 77.00.

More importantly, the BTC market was rocked by the US Securities and Exchange Commission's (SEC) rejection of the bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) at the end of July and that played a big role in pushing prices below $6,000.

As for today, the RSI is located at 64.50, meaning there is plenty room for an extension of the rally towards the immediate resistance lined up at $7,806 (200-day moving average). Further, the markets seem to have priced-in the ETF-related bad news in the first half of August.

And last but not the least, BTC's recovery from $5,859 (August low) has produced the first higher price low of the year, which indicates the tide is turning in favor of the bulls.

As a result, it seems that despite today's dip, BTC's bullish move above the falling channel hurdle looks legitimate and the rally is sustainable.

While the cryptocurrency is losing altitude at the time of writing, the pullback will likely be short-lived as both the short-and long-term technical studies are biased toward the bulls

4-hour chart

The 4-hour chart too, suggests the outlook remains bullish, with the rising channel still intact.

Further, the stacking order of the 50-candle, above the 100-candle, above the 200-candle moving averages (MAs) is a typical bullish signal.

However, the bull case would weaken if the cryptocurrency finds acceptance below the rising channel.

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  • BTC's long-term bullish breakout looks more legitimate than the one seen in July.
  • The pullback witnessed today could end up recharging the engine for a stronger rally toward the 200-day MA of $7,806.
  • A UTC close below the 10-day MA would abort the short-term bullish view.
  • Acceptance below the 100-day MA located at $6,895 would invalidate the long-run bull breakout.

Disclosure: The author holds no cryptocurrency assets at the time of writing.

bitcointrap image via Shutterstock; Charts by Trading View

With signs of bull exhaustion showing on the technical charts, bitcoin (BTC) faces a return to the psychological support of $7,000.

At press time, the cryptocurrency is changing hands at $7,235 on Bitfinex – representing a 0.4 percent drop on a 24-hour basis.

Prices found acceptance above $7,000 over the weekend, having cleared the resistance offered by the 50-day and 100-day moving averages (MAs) last week and rose to $7,429 yesterday – the highest level since Aug. 4.

While the bull grip around BTC strengthened in the last seven days, prices failed to cut through the resistance of the trendline sloping upwards from the June 29 low and Aug. 12 low, possibly due to buyer exhaustion. This should not come as a surprise as BTC has rallied nearly 27 percent in the 2.5 weeks without notable price pullback.

As a result, BTC could feel the pull of gravity in the next 24 hours, although overall outlook remains bullish as long as prices do not find acceptance below $7,000.

4-hour chart

As seen in the above chart, BTC created a gravestone doji candle yesterday, suggesting the upside momentum has weakened – that is, the bulls failed to push prices above the trendline hurdle and the bears regained lost ground.

Further, the relative strength index (RSI) rolling over from above 80.00 (overbought territory) is calling for profit taking or healthy pullback.

Prices could, therefore, drop to the rising wedge support, currently seen at $7,040, but, with the 100-candle MA crossing the 200-candle MA from below (bull cross), the support will likely hold.

The stacking order of the 50-candle, above the 100-candle, above the 200-candle, is a typical bullish signal.

Daily chart

The daily chart shows that the 5-day and 10-day MAs continue to trend north, indicating a short-term bullish setup, as well as a bullish crossover between the 50-day and 100-day MAs. The RSI, too, is biased toward the bulls.

Only if the bears manage to pull off a downside break of the rising wedge is a deeper sell-off likely.

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  • BTC could be in for a minor pullback to $7,040–$7,000 in the next 24 hours.
  • The overall bias remains bullish, as seen in the daily chart, hence, BTC will likely defend the support at $7,000 and could resume the journey back towards $7,500.
  • A downside break of the rising wedge would signal a bear revival and shift risk in favor of a drop to support at $6,650 (multiple daily highs).

Disclosure: The author holds no cryptocurrency assets at the time of writing.

Bitcoin image via Shutterstock; Charts by Trading View

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Bitcoin (BTC) bulls need to defend key support at $6,905, else the short-term bullish outlook would be invalidated.

At press time, the leading cryptocurrency is trading at $6,920 on Bitfinex – down 2 percent on a 24-hour basis.

The pullback from the previous day's high of $7,139 does not come as a surprise, as the 21 percent rally witnessed in the last two weeks was looking overstretched yesterday.

However, the short-term bullish case would weaken if the cryptocurrency finds acceptance below the 100-day moving average (MA) of $6,905.

Daily chart


BTC created a spinning top candle yesterday, signaling indecision in the marketplace. However, when viewed against the backdrop of the 21 percent rally from the low of $8,507, the spinning top candle represents bullish exhaustion.

A UTC close below the 100-day MA lined up at $6,905 would validate the spinning top candle and shift risk in favor of a downside break of the rising wedge.

Acceptance below the wedge support would confirm a bullish-to-bearish trend change, that is, the rally from the low of $5,859 has ended and the bigger downtrend from the July high of $8,507 has resumed. In this case, BTC could revisit recent lows below $6,000.

Hence, the bulls need to defend the 100-day MA of $6,905 to keep the short-term bullish outlook intact. That said, the short duration charts are pointing to an increased risk of a drop below $6,905.

4-hour chart

As seen in the above chart, BTC has breached the rising trendline in favor of the bears. Further, the relative strength index (RSI) has also taken out the ascending trendline support. As a result, the emboldened bears may push the cryptocurrency down to the ascending (bullish) 50-candle MA, currently located at $6,735.

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  • A UTC close below $6,905 would confirm a spinning top bearish reversal and strengthen the odds of a downside break of the rising wedge pattern.
  • A rising wedge breakdown would signal a resumption of the sell-off from the July high of $8,507 and could yield a drop to $6,000 (February low).
  • A close today above the 100-day MA would keep the bulls in the game and allow a sustained move above $7,200 in the next couple of days.

Disclosure: The author holds no cryptocurrency assets at the time of writing.

Bitcoin image via Shutterstock; Charts by Trading View

Bitcoin (BTC) is looking north, having scaled $7,000 on Tuesday, but its close proximity to a key resistance zone and short-term overbought conditions call for caution on the part of the bulls.

The leading cryptocurrency jumped to a three-week high of $7,128 on Bitfinex yesterday and closed well above the 100-day moving average (MA) hurdle, signaling a continuation of the rally from the Aug. 14 low of $5,859.

However, the 21 percent price rise witnessed in the last two weeks is looking overstretched, as per the short-duration technical studies.

As a result, BTC may have a tough time scaling the immediate resistance zone of $7,160–$7,180 in the next 24 hours and could suffer a minor pullback before extending the ongoing rally.

At press time, BTC is changing hands at $7,100 – up 2.28 percent on the day.

Daily chart

As seen in the above chart, BTC's convincing move above $7,000 has bolstered the already bullish setup as indicated by the higher highs, ascending 5-day and 10-day moving averages (MAs), and the bullish crossover between 50-day and 100-day MAs.

The cryptocurrency has also found acceptance above $6,870 (38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement of the sell-off from $8,507 to $5,859) and the relative strength index (RSI) has moved well above 50.00 (in bullish territory).

So, it seems safe to say that, for BTC, the path of least resistance is on the higher side, although a break above the resistance zone of $7,160 (top end or resistance of the rising wedge pattern)–$7,183 (50 percent Fibonacci retracement) could remain elusive for 24 hours or so.

4-hour chart

The RSI is located above 70.00, signaling overbought conditions. Hence, the immediate upside could be capped around $7,180 and a minor corrective pullback could be in the offing.

BTC/USD Longs

Another cause for caution is the 4.7 percent drop in the BTC/USD longs on Bitfinex yesterday, which indicates the break above $7,000 failed to entice the bulls. Moreover, it is the unwinding of shorts (drop in BTC/USD shorts), as seen in the chart above, that is likely driving BTC higher.

A rise in BTC/USD longs would add credence to the bullish view put forward by the daily chart.

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  • The bull grip has strengthened, courtesy of BTC's convincing move above $7,000, although the immediate resistance at $7,160–$7,180 will likely prove a tough nut to crack in the next 24 hours.
  • A corrective pullback, if any, will likely be short-lived. Traders should watch out for a rebound from the ascending 5-day and 10-day MAs.
  • A move above $7,180 would open up upside toward the next major resistance at $7,330 (rising trendline seen in the daily chart).
  • The bears could feel emboldened if the rising wedge ends up with a downside break. That would mean the sell-off from the July high of $8,507 has resumed.

Disclosure: The author holds no cryptocurrency assets at the time of writing.

Hurdle image via Shutterstock; Charts by Trading View

Bitcoin's (BTC) price surpassed $7,000 early on Tuesday after 20 days stuck in a narrow range below $6,800.

The worlds largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization first moved past the $7,000 mark soon after 10:00 UTC today after trading sideways for nearly three weeks. As traders of bitcoin have come to realize, periods of low volatility often come to a boisterous end.

Bitcoin passing the psychological hurdle did not come without warning. As mentioned yesterday, bearish bitcoin futures bets had hit a record low – signaling investor sentiment was beginning to shift into bullish mode.

What's more, the market was not phased by the SEC's decision to reject several ETF proposals last week. While negative, the news failed to wreak havoc on prices, as has happened previously, and was a sign that bearish market pressure was reaching exhaustion.

At press time, bitcoin is trading at an average price of $7,064 across exchanges, according to the CoinDesk Bitcoin Price Index, having peaked at just above $7,070 today so far.

4-hour chart

After closing a 4-hour session above the elusive resistance zone of $6,700–$6,850, the bulls continued to ultimately pass the peak of the prior rally ($6,899) seen on Aug. 22. The next level of resistance currently resides at $7,165.

What's more, the price was able to close above the 200-period exponential moving average (EMA) – a feat not accomplished since Aug 4. Finding acceptance above all of the short-term EMAs signals the path of least resistance is to the upside, at least in the short-term.

A short-term pullback to prior resistance ($6,899) would be considered healthy, as price often falls back to prior resistance in order to prove it can hold as support.

Daily chart

The daily chart depicts a couple of bullish indications that suggest a move to around $7,600 is more than possible.

For one, bitcoin is defending its first higher low on the daily timeframe since April – a strong bullish indication since the bulls were able to defend avoid setting a new low for the year.

What's more, the 50- and 100-day EMAs are forming a bull cross, signaling that momentum is indeed shifting away from the bears. The strongest resistance on the daily timeframe lies near $7,800 – the location of the 200-day EMA and descending trendline resistance.

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  • The short-term trend is becoming bullish, setting the stage for a move to the prior resistance zone of $7,400
  • Longer term, bitcoin setting a higher low is a bullish sign that could fuel a move towards the 200 day EMA at $7,800.
  • Finding acceptance below prior resistance at $6,550 would negate the short-term bullish view.

Disclosure: The author holds BTC, AST, REQ, OMG, FUEL, 1st and AMP at the time of writing.

Bitcoin image via Shutterstock

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Bitcoin (BTC) could post new 2018 lows over the weekend, having found acceptance below key price support.

Despite signs of a possible corrective rally seen earlier yesterday, the leading cryptocurrency closed below $6,000 for the first time since November 12, signaling a downside break of a major support (February low).

While the bears had briefly pushed prices down to $5,755 (2018 low) last Sunday, a close below $6,000 had remained elusive. Now that prices sit below $6,000, the focus is back on the long-run bearish technical charts, which continue to call a move lower to $5,000.

At press time, BTC is changing hands at $5,904 on Bitfinex � down 3.4 percent on a 24-hour basis.

 

Meanwhile, other cryptocurrencies are also flashing red this morning. Names like EOS, litecoin (LTC), cardano (ADA) are reporting 6 percent drops on a 24-hour basis. Ethereum (ETH) and XRP are down 4 percent each, according to CoinMarketCap.

Despite the drop below support, bitcoin is still outperforming most other cryptocurrencies and is now at 11th place on the list of best performing top-100 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization.

Clearly, investors have become more risk-averse, venturing out of high-risk cryptocurrencies and into bitcoin (and possibly then on to fiat currency). Consequently, the BTC dominance rate has climbed to 43 percent � the highest level since April 12.

Unfortunately for the bulls, the stage looks set for a further decline in bitcoin prices. Even so, the bears still need to keep their eyes open, as the unwinding of short positions ahead of month's end and more importantly, quarter's end, could again lift prices above $6,000.

Daily chart

The close below $6,000 support has bolstered the already bearish technical setup as indicated by the falling channel (series of lower highs and lower lows), downward sloping 5-day and 10-day moving average (MA).

Further, bitcoin is trading well below 50-day, 100-day and 200-day MAs, indicating that the long-term bias is bearish. What's more, the long-term averages are aligned one below the other and are trending south.

The bearish sentiment is quite an obstacle to overcome right now, as the bullish price-to-relative strength index (RSI) and price-to-money flow index divergences seen earlier this week failed to yield a notable corrective rally.

Other indicators are also pointing to a strong bearish sentiment. For instance, the Chaikin money flow (CMF), an oscillator that measures buying and selling pressure, is printing negative values for the fifth consecutive week.

The drop below $6,000 also adds credence to the pennant breakdown seen in the weekly chart and the bearish crossover between the 5-month and 10-month moving average.

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  • Short-term outlook: Bearish, having closed below $6,000 yesterday.
  • Long-term outlook: Bearish, as indicated by the pennant breakdown on the weekly chart.
  • BTC could break below $5,755 (June 23 low) and could extend the decline towards the next major support located at $5,400 (November 12 low).
  • Only a high-volume falling-channel breakout would confirm a short-term bearish-to-bullish trend change.

Charts image via Shutterstock

 

Bitcoin's (BTC) price charts remain biased to the bears, but market positioning on a major exchange suggests a sustained break below $6,000 may remain elusive in short-term.

At press time, the leading cryptocurrency is trading at $6,100 on Bitfinex, largely unchanged on a 24-hour basis, and technically speaking, BTC remains on the defensive as discussed yesterday.

Further, the cryptocurrency markets will likely remain risk averse as the sell-off in ETH/BTC � the risk barometer of the cryptocurrency markets � is seen gathering pace in the next 24 hours.

So, going by the technicals alone, it seems safe to say that BTC is likely to find acceptance below the February low of $6,000 soon.

 

However, activity on Bitfinex, the fourth biggest cryptocurrency exchange by 24-hour trading volume, shows that BTC/USD shorts have been getting liquidated in recent days, while investors have been loading up on BTC/USD longs, creating upward pressure on price.

Thus, there is merit in the bears being cautious, as a corrective rally can't be ruled out.

Daily chart

The falling channel and downward sloping Bollinger Bands (standard deviation of +2, -2 on 20-day moving average) indicate that the bear grip on bitcoin is still intact.

The Chaikin money flow (CMF), an oscillator that measures buying and selling pressure, remains below zero, indicating strong selling pressure.

The longer the CMF remains the remains in a zone (either above zero or below zero) the more consistent the sentiment. In BTC's case, bearish sentiment is quite strong as the CMF has been hovering in the negative territory for the fifth consecutive week.

BTC could well close (as per UTC) below $6,000 (February low) in the next day or two, and maybe extend the decline from the May high of $9,990 towards $5,000 in the next few weeks.

BTC/USD longs rising

As mentioned above, BTC/USD longs on Bitfinex have increased by 16.5 percent since June 17, as seen in the chart above. This likely indicates that bargain hunters are finding BTC undervalued around $6,000 � unsurprising, perhaps, as the cryptocurrency is down 70 percent from the all-time record high of almost $20,000 in December.

BTC/USD shorts dropping

BTC/USD shorts have dropped 25 percent since Sunday. Interestingly, the charts saw a long-legged doji candle on the same day, indicating bearish exhaustion. Both are factors that may have helped BTC's defense of $6,000 amid the bearish technical setup.

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  • While the technical outlook is bearish, we are unable to rule out a corrective rally above the immediate resistance of $6,425, courtesy of the bullish market positioning seen on Bitfinex.
  • The conflicting signals force us to call a neutral market.
  • A daily close (as per UTC) below $6,000 (February low) would boost the odds of a drop to falling channel support, currently seen at $5,300.
  • On the higher side, a convincing move above $6,425 (April 1 low) would add credence to signs of a short-term bullish turnaround seen earlier this week and would open the doors to a stronger corrective rally towards $7,000.

Bitcoin image via Shutterstock